WFCG #8: Predictions for 2026

Or, what to expect when you're expecting a losing season

Happy Opening Day! The long nightmare that was the offseason is finally over. Now begins the regular season, which could well be an even longer, even worse nightmare. But I am an optimist (though Reddit may disagree), and I think there are a few reasons this team could exceed expectations in 2026.

So to inaugurate the 2026 season, and to give you all something to hold over my head when I’m wrong, I proudly present: my 2026 Nationals predictions.

The Nationals will not be a bottom 5 team by ERA.

This may seem like a low bar, but the Nationals’ pitching staff was staggeringly awful last year. They had a team ERA of 5.35, second-worst in baseball to the Rockies (at a shocking 5.99). It wasn’t close, either: They were as far from the Marlins in 25th (4.60 ERA) as the Marlins were from the top 10.

The following are all real statlines from the 2025 Washington Nationals:

• Jake Irvin: 180 IP, 5.70 ERA, -0.4 WAR

• Mitchell Parker: 164.2 IP, 5.68 ERA, -1.2 WAR

• Trevor Williams: 82.2 IP, 6.21 ERA, -0.6 WAR

And that’s just the rotation. Sensitive readers may want to avert their eyes for the bullpen:

• Colin Poche: 8.2 IP, 11.42 ERA

• Lucas Sims: 12.1 IP, 13.86 ERA

• Eduardo Salazar: 29.0 IP, 8.38 ERA

• Zach Brzykcy: 23.0 IP, 9.00 ERA

• Mason Thompson: 10.2 IP, 11.81 ERA

• Ryan Loutos: 9.0 IP, 12.00 ERA

• Andry Lara: 14.1 IP, 8.79 ERA

Do not ever forget how bad things were last year. And that’s not even to mention Shinnosuke Ogasawara (6.98 ERA), Jorge Lopez (6.57), or Orlando Ribalta (7.03). The 2025 Nationals had five pitchers throw at least 10 innings with an ERA of 8.00 or higher. The 2024 Nationals, a similarly bad team, had zero.

My point here is that the floor is so, so low for this team. With sensible roster construction, modern pitching instruction, and a reported eagerness to play the matchups as much as possible, Paul Toboni and Blake Butera will surely be able to avoid a similar disaster.

Luis García Jr. will finally, for real, break out this time.

CJ Abrams, as we all know, is a talented young star who has only just begun to put it all together. He debuted young and has taken steps forward each year he’s been a pro.

Luis García Jr., however, is a frustrating player who’s had every chance to prove himself and has yet to firmly grab a starting job — and nearly lost his spot entirely in 2024 thanks to Trey Lipscomb’s hot spring.

You know where I’m going with this, right? García is just five months older than Abrams. He doesn’t turn 26 until May. He’s a month older than Bobby Witt Jr. And while his defense may be uninspiring, his bat is impressive — and is getting better every year.

García’s expected offensive output last year (as measured by Statcast’s xwOBA) was .339, putting him in the 72nd percentile and in the neighborhood of players like Alex Bregman (.337) and Gunnar Henderson (.341). Compared to his 2024 season, when he put up a 110 wRC+ and a 3.0 fWAR season, García was even better in 2025 by xwOBA. He struck out less, hit the ball harder, set a career high in hard hit rate, and perhaps most importantly, started pulling the ball in the air much more. The main flaw in his profile remains an eagerness to chase (6th percentile), which a brand new Trajekt machine just might be able to help. And did I mention he’s still 25?

I’ve been burned for saying this before, but I think this is García’s year.

Luis García Jr.’s 2025 Statcast page.

Eli Willits emerges as a top-10 prospect in baseball.

Before last year’s draft, Eli Willits was not considered the consensus best prospect available. He had a few things going for him — he was a well-rounded switch hitter with a good eye and nice glove at shortstop. He was also extremely young: just 17 on draft day. But he hadn’t shown much power, and wasn’t quite as physically imposing as most.

So what about him made him an appealing choice at #1? What bet were the Nationals making? Let’s hear it from Baseball Prospectus, who also ranked Willits as their top prospect in the draft:

Despite being significantly younger than basically everyone in his draft class cohort, Willits posted above-average contact and power data on the showcase circuit, and we know hard-hit data improves drastically right around the age difference between Willits and the other top preps. The extra runway provided with a spare year of growth is why a lot of teams love younger position player picks.

The gamble in choosing Willits was that, given his extreme youth, he’d keep maturing physically, and that power would come. Well, per The Athletic’s Spencer Nusbaum (doing great work as usual), it may well be coming:

“Exit velos have definitely went up a lot, just from maturing over the years and putting great work in,” Willits said. “It was a great offseason for me.”

Willits hit .300 as a 17-year-old at Low-A after the draft. If he can add meaningful power to that profile, look out.

Keibert Ruiz exceeds expectations, and hangs on to a share of the catching job.

This is less evidence-based than most of my other predictions, but it merits inclusion here. I don’t think any player stands to benefit more from the new regime than Ruiz. As a fielder, he has struggled, but veteran catching coach Bobby Wilson is just the guy to turn him around. Wilson turned Jonah Heim into a Gold Glover in Texas, and should be able to help Ruiz maximize his talents behind the plate.

On offense, Ruiz has superlative contact skills but not much else. New equipment, data, and preparation methods could help him hone his approach. A coaching staff well-versed in bat-path modeling and pitcher-hitter matchups will put him in a position to succeed. I don’t think he’s an All-Star, but I think he’ll be better than what we’ve seen.

The Nationals defy the Vegas odds and win at least 70 games.

Oddsmakers currently peg the Nationals for about 65 wins. That’s a decline from last year’s 66 on its face, but the 2025 Nationals had the run differential of a 61-win team.

If my first prediction comes true and they do escape the bottom 5 of team ERA, that’s shaving off over 100 runs allowed. That alone gets you to an expected ~70 wins. Add that to basically any offensive improvement: James Wood improving with experience, a full season of Daylen Lile, Harry Ford getting playing time at catcher, etc., and it’s easy to see how this team could take a step forward.

They won’t be chasing a wild card berth just yet, but I think things are brighter than they seem in DC.

Bonus rapid fire round!

• Cade Cavalli becomes A Guy.

• Miles Mikolas doesn’t make it to August.

• Andres Chaparro loses the first base job, which becomes a revolving door.

• Daylen Lile becomes an average defender.

• Foster Griffin puts up a sub-4 ERA.

• Dylan Crews returns in May and posts a ~100 wRC+.

• CJ Abrams gets traded at the deadline and Nasim Nuñez impresses as his replacement.

• Every time you turn on your TV, a reliever you’ve never heard of is pitching for the Nationals.

Thanks for reading! I’d love to hear from you about thoughts, questions, or future topics you’d like me to cover. I’ll be monitoring the comments section here, or you can find me on Twitter or BlueSky.